This morning Brock and Logan look at yesterday’s crop progress report and the technical landscape on the July Soybean contract. Tune in for the full report!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
Positive action in the grain market early in the week was struck down by a broad commodity sell-off Wednesday, spurred lower by projections for a larger than expected winter wheat crop. Field scouts from the winter wheat crop tour pegged Kansas yields at 53.6 bushels per acre on day one of the tour, up from 40 bushels per acre on day one of last year’s tour.
Following wheat lower on Wednesday was the soybean market which posted July contract highs at 1512 ½ before closing the day down 16 cents at 1485. This was viewed as a key reversal by technical analysts, as new contract highs were followed by sharp selling and a settlement price lower than the previous day’s low. With managed money holding a record net long position in soybeans, any major profit taking by the funds will add substantial selling pressure to this soybean market.
Dominating market chatter this week wasn’t price action, but the CME Group’s decision to expand trading hours for the grain complex. These markets will now trade electronically 22 hours a day, with a 2 hour break between 4:00 and 6:00 PM CST, Monday through Friday. Open outcry hours will remain the same, and there will still be a settlement made around 1:15 PM CST on contracts. This move was in response to the ICE exchange’s decision to introduce grain contracts that are pegged off of existing CBOT (CME) contracts, and would trade 22 hours a day. This was a business move made by the CME group to remain competitive, and there are good arguments on both sides of the fence whether this is a good or a bad move for the markets and ultimately, price discovery in the grains.
Supporters argue that weather conditions and demand factors do not stop when the markets close, so to effectively manage price risk market participants need nearly round the clock access to the futures market. Detractors will say that this is just a move to capture market volume, and further removes grain futures from open outcry transactions. The bottom line for producers is that this move has large implications for managing price risk, especially on USDA report days when these reports will be released during market hours. Instead of having hours to digest the figures in the WASDE or Crop Progress reports, now the fastest finger will be able to capture any market moves following the report.
The ability to access these markets around the clock is more important than ever as we enter a new era of electronic grain trading. Grain Hedge clients have direct market access and can place their own orders any time the markets trade, all for $7 commissions per side. If you would like to take a look at what Grain Hedge can offer your operation, give us a call at 877-472-4607.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
As April came to a close many elevators rolled to the July contract for spot delivery for both Chicago wheat and corn. We reflect this week on the spread between these two commodities over the last two months. Since the beginning of March, the average spread between May corn and SRW wheat contracts was .16 cents in favor of corn. This is the only time in five years that this spread in the futures market has favored corn during March and April. The difference last year was 44 cents with wheat trading higher. Last year’s 44 cent difference was even 75 cents less than the spread seen in 2010. Over the last five years this spread has decreased as corn stocks have gotten tighter and global wheat stocks have been relatively abundant.
The difference in spot corn and Chicago wheat basis at the end of April was six cents with corn basis being the stronger of the two. Last year the premium of corn basis over SRW was an average of 37 cents. Spot Chicago wheat basis gained two cents throughout April with the majority of the strength seen in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio with gains of six cents in Indiana and three cents in Illinois and Ohio. With cash SRW and corn prices drifting closer together the decision of what to buy for feed becomes less clear.
This morning Brock and Logan watch the market open and discuss the key numbers we saw in this morning’s USDA WASDE report. Tune in for the full report!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
This afternoon Cody and Abbey discuss the day’s action in the futures market and recent changes in the cash market for corn and soybeans. Tune in for the full report!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
This morning, Brock and Logan watch the market open and take a look at the July-December corn spread using the Firetip platform. Commitment of Traders and this afternoon’s Crop Progress Report are also discussed, tune in for the full report!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
This morning Brock and Cody discuss a large old crop corn sale this morning reported by the Foreign Ag Service and yesterday’s Crop Progress Report. Grains are up across the board, tune in to see the market open!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
The grain market isn’t ready for 600 old crop corn or 1400 old crop soybeans just yet. After yesterday’s sell-off we see corn up 16, soybeans up 8, and Chicago wheat up 13 cents. Macro forces have helped today’s rally, and on this morning’s GrainTV we discuss outside markets, export sales data, ethanol production, and look at some technicals. Tune in for the full report!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
On this morning’s broadcast Kevin and Cody discuss the delayed crop progress report, and what wheat producers should do in light of this spring and winter wheat crop that is off to a great start. Tune in for the full report!
The grain complex is selling off across the board this morning, at the time of this post we see corn down 12 1/4, soybeans down 18 1/4, and Chicago wheat down 8. Keep an eye on the soybean complex as last Friday’s COT report showed 216,000 net longs held by managed money. When these bulls exit the plane expect turbulence, and with nearly 50 cents taken off the May contract in the last week there could be some nervous longs in the managed money sector.
It will be important to see where we close today, follow us on Twitter @GrainTV for updates if you are out working the fields. Want to view live quotes and execute your own trades for $7 commissions per side? Take a demo of Firetip today!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
At the time of this post we see soybeans leading the grains to the upside, up 12 3/4 cents for May delivery. Export sales to unknown destinations were reported this morning for old and new crop soybeans, and it looks to be lending support to a market that has sold off in recent sessions.
This morning Brock and Logan discuss fundamentals in the soybean complex and expectations for this afternoons delayed crop progress report. Like the live quotes and charts you see on GrainTV? Take a Firetip demo today!
THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS. FUTURES TRADING IS NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE READ OUR RISK DISCLOSURE.
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